The hot off the fire by-election win of the National Unity Platform (NUP) in Kawempe set a wake-up call for the National Resistance Movement on how it deals with urban politics in particular, the central region, and inevitably, gave the opposition renewed hope – especially within the NUP which has been the topic of discussion since Mathias Mpuuga’s saga. Following a long struggle where journalists were beat up, intimidated and the army was there in disguise, the NUP took a comfortable victory.
In a ridiculous way, one would really have to ask, how did the NRM come to flop and finish at the level below NUP, because they had seen Kawempe as a fertile ground that would help them test the depth of water and usher in their interest for 2026- with PDM as cornerstone to reckon with, since success stories are being advertised like Uganda tourism centres in every tour. So with this background, it was logical for the NRM to send out a strong cadre of messengers and members of the game to ensure somehow a must win, since opposition seemed to lack in several things that were showcased during the burial of late Muhammad Sigirinya.
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So remarkably, how did the pre-trained groom not drive back home with the bride of his dreams, after all initial preparations were perfectly executed. Supposedly, one would say that NRM has not been able to capture the contested seat and hence was basically a threat to NRM securing victory as far as the contest is concerned. But is that the whole picture? Let’s really look at it this way, the actions and tactics of NRM have become emblematic of handling by-elections, hence granting opposition ample time to plan in tandem, anticipate and weave around the tactics coming from the NRM side, with the Gen Z nationalism on rise, and media playing a big role in incentivising to NUP, except for some rural areas where you would think that NUP is nothing but a myth.
Nevertheless, intimidation according to reports (the armored vehicles, tankers) proved the netizens that, in fact, at this point it is the time to teach the regime a lesson it will always remember by massively voting against their ambassador — let alone, the beating of journalists increased and helped NUP’s victory in the aftermath of public sympathy which later rose nationalism and patriotism of the netizens who seized their constituency by blood
And on the other hand, within the NRM, the internal methods used in choosing flag bearers have always been marred by a lot of internal criticism and contestation, which Kawempe was no excuse to this effect (same for Serere by- election) and for Kawempe it was paraded all throughout the campaigns. Therefore NRM’s strategy of using the old broom tactic, could not man and match the very resilient, determined, disappointed and poorly serviced masses of Kawempe
Nonetheless, does NUP win give a ray of hope and inspiration to Ugandans come 2026 general election when they will be given a predetermined chance to make their pursuits clearer, as it was the case with Kawempe?
Well, the Uganda opposition has historically faced some serious obstacles in seeking to overthrow President Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power since 1986. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) has used a number of different strategies – including bribery, intimidation and manipulation of electoral reforms to maintain its grip on power:
One of the biggest flaws in the opposition is that there is not uniformity between all the factions of the opposition. They are obsessed with personal interest and leadership, like- a champions-League final. Not long ago, NUP started having problems with party unity in their own house of liberation, FDC which was once considered as light in the sky shoving its way slowly into the caves. Being that there are so many morphing political parties, all looking for disciples and apostles to embark on a public rampage rather than the purposes of their mandate, it’s right say, the opposition, as stands has not got a clear sense of direction, it is like a game of cats choosing from among themselves who will go in search of the mouse.
Also, the NRM’s tactic of hijacking political opponents using baits like cash and offices for its own use has been a weakness of opposition strength. What has become luminous is that, the detention of Dr. Kizza Besigye, an important opposition leader has been a wake up call for us all on what it takes to challenge the Ugandan ruling party in elections. So with all this divide and conquer, it will require a powerful mantle and resilience for the opposition to stand firm once again in 2026.
Although these challenges appear to have become the daily meal for political analysts, there is hope for the opposition after Kawempe. The NUP’s ability to garner support, despite NRM attempts to undermine it, shows that, we have still people in Uganda wanting change and opposition can build on that course
As the 2026 elections approach, several questions remain unanswered. Can the opposition unite behind a common goal and leader? Will the NRM’s tactics continue to undermine the opposition’s efforts? Will NRM use the same tactics to gain glory? Can the electoral reforms be revised to ensure a free and fair election?
The answers to these questions will determine the fate of the 2026 elections. Of course there is one thing though – the opposition’s comeback in Kawempe has given Ugandans a reason to believe in change but also that the NRM has slowly started slipping into a state of abyss at it’s core with rumours brewing about the collapse of the party post Museveni, factionalism sprouting in the party and members picking nails rather than eyeing – that it is far from too long before the real drama comes to the public realm
The Author is a Researcher and a Political Commentator
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